Rally Portugal returns to the WRC calendar this week with 344.9 kilometres of competitive stages spread across 23 stages, and a championship picture that has Sebastien Ogier as the obvious threat from a strong road position.
Ogier opens further down the order than the championship leader, has won the rally in recent memory, and goes into the round with the kind of momentum that the Toyota Gazoo Racing camp has come to rely on.
Maximum Attack Rallying's preview programme made the case directly.
"Sebastien Ogier is going to be one to watch this weekend," the show's host said. "Good road position starting further down the order. Obviously a master when it comes to winning rallies from anywhere on the road, including Portugal last year. So I think he is definitely one to watch this weekend. I said in my Canary Islands review that we should reassess Ogier's championship credentials after this rally. I think he could come away from this one with a win, potentially with a maximum score."
The championship leader sits in the most awkward seat. Elfyn Evans opens the road on Friday, ahead of Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari, and a hot, dry Portugal is a road position that historically penalises the first car through.
"The man leading the championship, Elfyn Evans, he opens the road," the preview noted. "He's ahead of Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari. Are either of those three going to win the rally? I feel like no. Evans did really, really well to get himself back on top of the championship standings after Canary Islands. He put in a good stint, set good times by the end of the weekend, even if he didn't have the best start."
The advice from the preview to Evans was pragmatic rather than ambitious.
"If I was Elfyn Evans for this one, I would just want a solid result," the show said. "No need to go for broke. Just keep building. Ogier is going to show up, he's going to be fast, and he could well win the rally. But at this stage that does not matter. All Elfyn has to do is just keep banging in the points, banging in the results, and getting decent scores. We're back on tarmac next time as well at Japan. So if he can get decent points here, go to Japan, another set of decent results there, that's a very good place to be."
The schedule itself rewards consistency over heroics. The action opens on Thursday with Aguada at 15 km, Sever at 20 km and the Figueira da Foz Super Special at just under 2 km. Friday is short by Portugal standards at 96 km over seven stages, with morning runs of Mortagua, Arganil and Lousa, and an afternoon loop that swaps Sever for Gois.
Saturday is the long day. 145.9 km in two loops, taking in Felgueiras at 8.8 km, Cabeceiras de Basto at 19.9 km, Arganil at 26 km and Paredes at 16 km, with a Lousa special closing the day. Sunday returns to the usual short format, with Vieira do Minho at 21.6 km and a Power Stage run at Fafe in 11 km form.
Weather is the open variable. Forecasts point to mid-to-high teens rather than a typical baking Iberian Friday, and a 15 to 20 percent chance of precipitation.
For Katsuta and Pajari, the preview's reading was simple: bank the result, keep working.
"Katsuta, I'm not so sure about this weekend," the host said. "He was not that impressive at Canary Islands. Despite the highs of earlier this season, a solid performance wouldn't be such a bad thing."
If Ogier produces the maximum score the preview is calling for and Evans can only manage points-based damage limitation from the front of the road, the championship will look very different by Sunday afternoon.
---
*Originally published on [Motorsports Global](https://motorsports.global/article/ogier-rally-portugal-2026-evans-championship-lead-katsuta-pajari-preview). Visit for full coverage.*
