Talk has already started, within 48 hours of Napoleon Solo's Preakness Stakes victory, about whether the new Classic winner will actually run in the Belmont Stakes. Industry chatter and on-air analyst commentary have raised the possibility that trainer Chad Summers and owner Al Gold will instead point their horse at the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in July.
The case for the Belmont is straightforward. A win in the third Triple Crown race would establish Napoleon Solo as the leading three-year-old in the country and would set him up for divisional honours at the end of the year. Even a strong second or third would lock his name into the conversation for the Travers in late summer and the Breeders' Cup in November.
The case against is also straightforward. The Belmont is a mile and a half, the longest race most three-year-olds will ever run, and the toll on the horse can be significant. Napoleon Solo just came through a 14-horse Preakness in which he had to press a legitimate pace from early. Asking him to run again in three weeks at an additional half-furlong is a real strain. Summers's reputation is built on protecting his horses, and that instinct cuts toward avoiding back-to-back hard efforts.
The Haskell offers a softer landing. Run at Monmouth Park in late July at a mile and an eighth, it pays a guaranteed million-dollar purse and routinely draws the kind of three-year-old field that lets a horse establish his class without exhausting himself. Past Haskell winners have used the race as a launchpad for the Travers, and connections who choose the Haskell over the Belmont are not viewed in the industry as ducking competition - they are viewed as managing their horses sensibly.
The Iron Honor camp faces a similar choice. Andrew McKeever's runner-up effort at Laurel was professional, but the historical pattern - since 1998, no horse that finished out of the money in the Preakness has come back to win the Belmont - is daunting. The Haskell is a more forgiving objective. Iron Honor's connections are believed to be leaning that way.
If both Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor opt against the Belmont, the race becomes essentially a rematch between Derby winner Golden Tempo and Derby runner-up Renegade with a fresh wave of new shooters thrown in. From a viewing standpoint that is still a compelling race; from a Classic-narrative standpoint it strips out the Preakness winner and one of his closest contenders.
The next two weeks will be spent watching for breeze reports, breeze times and connection commentary. Summers's pattern is to communicate sparingly and to let the horse tell him what is appropriate. Industry observers will be looking at how Napoleon Solo eats and walks the shed row in the days immediately following the Preakness as the most reliable indicator.
A decision is expected by the end of next week. Whatever the call, the Belmont card will not lack for storylines - but it may lack the Preakness winner.
