The PGA Tour returns to Trump National Doral for the first time in a decade this week, with the Blue Monster hosting the Cadillac Championship and presenting a course profile that analysts say will brutally separate elite ball-strikers from the rest of the field.
Doral has not staged a regular Tour event since 2016, when Adam Scott won what was then a World Golf Championship. A Gil Hanse renovation completed before that final WGC means historical comparisons need to be read with caution, but the broad demands of the course are unchanged: avoid the water, hit fairways and greens, and capitalise on the par-fives.
Golfbet analyst Brad Thomas told the show's Cadillac Championship preview that the par-fives have been the great equaliser at Doral, while the par-threes and par-fours have played well over par across the course's recent Tour history. From 2003 to 2016, scoring at the Blue Monster's par-fives ran nearly 6,000 strokes under par; the rest of the holes ran heavily over.
It is the tee shot, however, that consistently identifies winners. Eight of the last 12 champions at Doral ranked inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee that week, and eight finished inside the top 10 in greens in regulation. Of the courses on Tour, only the Masters has produced more winners ranked inside the top four for greens hit during the winning week.
Golfbet host Will Gray argued that statistic should sharpen how bettors read the betting market, where Min Woo Lee's price had drifted significantly in the 24 hours before the first round. Lee is a fan favourite who can dominate when length matters more than precision, but Doral does not flatter wayward drivers.
"Min Woo's course requires length off the tee, but he's one of the fan favourites, so his price makes more sense in terms of golf bettors and golf fans betting instead of actual probability to win," Thomas said. "I feel good about going the other way on this Min Woo discussion."
Gray pointed to a structural similarity between Doral and TPC Sawgrass that he believes will favour clean ball-strikers willing to manage misses.
"Both Florida courses, both with a lot of water, both places where if you miss it on the right side you might get away with it, and if you miss it on the wrong side, you're making double bogey," he said. "Doral especially has really thick rough around the greens, and that's what I think has made some of the scrambling more difficult."
The greens themselves are domed and run off into water on several holes. With approach shots averaging close to 200 yards on a high percentage of the par-fours, Thomas warned that long-iron play would expose any gaps.
"If you're not dialled in with your irons, you're probably going to struggle," he said. "It brings double into play."
Wind is the course's other primary defence. Sustained breezes of 10 to 15 miles per hour can shift scoring averages dramatically, and the analysts said anything pushing 20 mph would make the venue close to unplayable for those without elite trajectory control.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler heads the betting market alongside Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young, with Tommy Fleetwood drifting in the prices despite his earlier season form. Brooks Koepka makes his first start as a full PGA Tour returnee following his LIV exit, while Min Woo Lee remains a popular sentimental pick.
The broader takeaway from the Golfbet roundtable is straightforward: at Doral the cream historically rises to the top because the course punishes any one weakness severely. As Thomas put it, anyone lacking either off the tee or on approach is likely to be in trouble before the wind even gets up.
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*Originally published on [Golf News Global](https://golfnews.global/article/cadillac-championship-doral-2026-strokes-gained-tee-preview). Visit for full coverage.*
