For the first time in the modern Triple Crown era, both Classic winners enter the Belmont Stakes from different sides of the spring. Golden Tempo, the 23-1 longshot who won the Kentucky Derby, did not run in the Preakness. Napoleon Solo, the 7-1 chance who won the Preakness, did not run in the Derby. With no Triple Crown bid on the line and the Belmont still three weeks away, the third leg has become the most open it has looked in a decade.
The stat hanging over Belmont week is the historical pattern. Since 1998, no horse that has finished out of the money in the Preakness has come back to win the Belmont. That single number complicates the case for Iron Honor, Chip Honcho, Oselli and Incredible - the placings behind Napoleon Solo at Laurel - even those who ran competitively. If the historical pattern holds, Belmont contenders most likely will not emerge from the back of the Preakness field.
Instead the spotlight shifts to the horses who skipped the second leg. Golden Tempo, trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Jose Ortiz, has had three weeks to recover and prepare specifically for a mile and a half at Saratoga - the Belmont's temporary home while Belmont Park is rebuilt. Renegade, the Derby runner-up trained by Brad Cox, also bypassed Baltimore. Both arrive fresh, both have already proved themselves at distance, and both should come into the race close to their physical peak.
The question is what Napoleon Solo's camp does next. Trainer Chad Summers and owner Al Gold could point their Preakness winner at the Belmont and chase a two-leg Classic profile that would put their horse firmly into year-end Eclipse Awards conversations. They could also choose the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth in July, which would protect Napoleon Solo's value as a stallion prospect by avoiding the punishing demands of a mile and a half. Industry sources have suggested both options are on the table.
Iron Honor's connections face a similar choice. The Preakness runner-up came out of the race in good order and would arrive at Saratoga reasonably well prepared, but the historical pattern suggests the bounce after a hard Preakness effort is a risk. The Haskell is a more forgiving target.
If both Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor opt against the Belmont, the race becomes essentially a rematch between Golden Tempo and Renegade plus a wave of new shooters. Trainers who have been pointing horses at the Belmont specifically - including the always-creative Chad Brown - will see the most opportunity they have had in years. Stamina-leaning pedigrees normally relegated to the back end of the Belmont field could find themselves in genuine contention.
Whatever the field looks like, the absence of a Triple Crown narrative does not weaken the race. If anything, it sharpens the focus on the three-year-old division as a whole. None of Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo or Renegade has stacked elite performances yet. The Belmont becomes the race that decides who actually leads this division into Saratoga and the Travers.
